Kinematic Slip Evolution During the 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding, China, Earthquake: Compatible With the Preseismic Locked Patch

The September 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake broke more than 230 years of seismic calm on the Moxi fault, providing a unique opportunity to understand its seismogenic environment, rupture dynamics, and hazard. Using teleseismic body waves, regional strong-motion observations, GNSS, InSAR data, we decipher spatiotemporal evolution mainshock. Combining elastic dislocation model with surface creep, find that coseismic slip correlates closely locked patch loading rate 9.7 mm/yr, but creeping is insufficient make up shallow deficit. Notably, ruptured only ∼1/4 gap, it further increased stress in unruptured northern part. We thus argue fault has potential for magnitude 7+ earthquakes near future, although geodetic prediction may overestimate actual moment released by rupture.